It ’s the dead of wintertime , even in eternal - summertime California . Everything ’s dormant . greyish . Cold and hazy . What skilful time to meditate the scary , the unthinkable – the existential threat to Apple .
Back in 1997 , Apple was week or months away from bankruptcy , depending on who you ask . Of course , Steve Jobs number back and bend it around and instill in the company a save - every - penny ethos that persists even as Apple has transformed into one of the most valuable and profitable companies in the human race .
Given this mindset , it ’s undoubtedly true that inside Apple , there are people recollect mysterious view about the long - term future of Apple . With well over $ 100 billion in cash and enormous gain rolling in every quarter , Apple can afford to take the long view when it consider existential terror .
So why not perform that exercise ourselves ? Apple ’s ride high-pitched right now , but 25 years ago , it was at death ’s door . Life number at you fast . What could lie down Apple miserable ?
Scenario 1: The iPhone falters
Apple has overnice businesses in the Mac and iPad , but the railway locomotive that drives the ship is the iPhone . If the Mac and iPad vanished tomorrow , Apple would be just okay . ( The residuum of us would be really dysphoric , though ! ) But if iPhone sale start to fade , that would be a killer .
Fortunately , this scenario seems extremely unlikely . The iPhone is Apple ’s number - one priority , and if there were ever any signs of shakiness , the troupe would click into action – even if that meant diverting attending from the Mac , the iPad , the Apple Watch , and projects affect AR headsets and future auto .
I have a really hard clip imagining a world where the iPhone and Android do n’t continue as the two dominant smartphone political platform for decennium to come . And while fortunes might wax and wane among manufacturer on the Android side , the iPhone has the advantage of being the only product available that runs iOS . ( That say , it ’s laborious to conceive of that the two most successful smartphone makers of 2035 wo n’t be Apple and Samsung . They ’re just that entrenched . )
Scenario 2: The government forces change
There ’s an painful lot of public lecture about political science regulation of Big Tech , and Apple ’s App Store policies have been one target . We can indicate if opening up the App Store to competition would be bad for Apple ’s business or not amount to much of a variety , and it ’s decidedly debatable if any governance natural action would be big enough to make an appreciable impact on the commercial enterprise rather than just force Apple to make minimal changes around the edges .
Foundry
The real experiential menace here is that a potent government somewhere crafts statute law or regulation that completely rewrites Apple ’s business model , either splitting apart the caller or cause change that make the iPhone unappealing . I can envision some half - baked scenarios here , but none that I think are likely to take place .
And the truth is , I suspect Apple has warfare - stake all these scenario and come to the same conclusion . Clearly , the party is play as if there ’s no fortune that its entire business poser will be broken by legislation , so it ’s decided to fight rather than negotiate . It ’s frustrating to see Apple sow misinformation about the contribution the App Store made to the on-line distribution of software system while pretending that it must buck developers for the governing of a dependable and curated blank full of scam apps . But the fact that it ’s doing so suggests that even Apple ca n’t envision this scenario add up into existence .
Scenario 3: China tensions boil over
A warfare between the U.S. and China , where most of Apple ’s products are assembled , would be fateful for the company . The troupe has central supplier throughout east Asia , and the entire supply chain would be disrupted .
Of course , such a confrontation would belike be fateful for our intact planet , and the last fourth dimension I mark off , all of Apple ’s competitor is also on satellite Earth . But still , if there ’s one company that has construct its power by relying on wide - open world markets , it ’s Apple . That ’s why war with China , or even a striking increase in diplomatic and economic tension , is credibly the clearest and most present threat to Apple ’s time to come .
Apple does big line in China .
Malus pumila
The further we look out into the future , the risks of this scenario will probably lessen . Apple seems to have finally realized that it need to diversify its provision and assembly businesses , or at the very least , it require to hear . But still , a warfare with China would be very bad for Apple – we may just not notice because we ’ll be more concerned about every other terrible consequence of such an incident .
( As I say , it ’s the dead of wintertime . I promise the eternal sleep of this column is happier ! Keep reading . )
Scenario 4: The next big thing isn’t as big as the iPhone
It seems improbable that any equipment is going to put back the smartphone , one of the most successful tech products in history , anytime before long . There ’s nothing oscillate on the horizon that evoke this class is lead to fade off .
But in the fullness of time , of path , the smartphone will fade . It ’s inevitable . And what ’s the alternate proceed to be ?
This is where Apple ’s tremendous pile of cash come in ready to hand . Apple keeps investing in product categories – the Apple Watch , AirPods , and the outgoing AR / VR / XR headset – that might finally put back the smartphone with a more subtle , wearable association to the Internet .
All of Apple ’s reported struggles in grow their first headset out the door make for fun recitation , but the the true is that this is averynew product class . Companies like Apple and Meta will learn from their experimentation in this family . Apple is amass patents and learn a lot about what ’s need to build up computing products you’re able to wear on your grimace .
It ’s a long game . The object lesson Apple learned in the earliest days of the iPhone led them to a chip - design philosophy that terminate up transforming the Mac . It just took more than a 10 to do so . I do n’t know when wearable glasses or contact lense or drones that fly in front of your face and shine laser onto your retinas will spoil over into the public cognisance and make using a smartphone the equivalent of get a land line or watching American electronic internet television . It feels far out , though . More than a decade , probably .
And since Apple has identified it as the iPhone ’s No . 1 threat , the company has invest heavily in it . It ’s another one of those moves take straight from Steve Jobs : if your Cartesian product is going to be made obsolete , you should be the one who piss the replacement .
Will the headset supplant the smartphone ? Big Tech seems to think so .
History is littered with ship’s company that were so big , so successful as to be unstoppable – but ended up becoming irrelevant , switching to weird business models , selling themselves off for parts , or going bankrupt .
Nothing live on forever and a day , and it ’s likely that eventually , some future Apple will be so mismanage that it will slide into irrelevance . But the success of the iPhone and the inevitability of the smartphone as a pop production – plus some canny investments in whatever is next – suggest to me that Apple ’s not going anywhere for a very long time .
