You might require to sit down for this .
… Apple saw its smartphone sales event in China plummet by 19.1 % year - over - year in [ Q1 2024 ] .
That ’s a lot of percents , but it is only China ( lol , “ only ” ) . Surely the party is doing well elsewhere . What about the U.S. ? The Macalope seems to remember it was doing gangbusters there .
Over the past four quarters , iPhone share of activations fall from 40 percent to 33 percent …
That number is a new low gear for iPhone activations . Wait , can an honest-to-goodness high be a young low gear ? Is an old high retroactively a low or does it remain a high until it is surpassed then repeated andthenbecomes a low ? Do the changes flow both ahead and backward through time ? We ’re pop off to needsome spaceship .
What if we just beak a market share for each marketer and they stick to that , huh ? Apple would n’t want to be on top , it ’s just that the Macalope ’s been talking about market share for 15 - plus years and he ’s really tired of it .
Okay , so thing are n’t currently enceinte for the iPhone ( although these decreases get along off of some passably high routine ) . Surely , Apple ’s doing great elsewhere .
Well , are you still sit ? If not , ride down again . Actually , you should probably just stay seated for the rest of this column . Who does n’t like a courteous sit , anyway ?
The Macalope isn’ttellingyou to lie down , but he would not tell apart younotto , either . It ’s how he writes these things , so why not ?
The Vision Pro is n’t doing so large , either .
Apple has sheer its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400–450k units ( vs. market consensus of 700–800k units or more ) .
Well , look , who came up with those previous estimates ? Turns out it wasMing - Chi Kuo . And while he did say that Apple asked suppliers to expand production to 700 to 800k units for 2024 , he suggested himself that 2024 shipments would be more like 650 to 700k .
According to the Macalope ’s calcamalator , the revised estimates are still abovethe 350k estimatesome suggested before the Vision Pro was release and thethe 150k unitsothers guessed at just after the gadget was announced .
The Financial Times alsohas a reportconfirming Kuo by stating Apple is making “ drastic cuts ” and will “ make few than 400,000 units in 2024 . ”
Oh , I ’m sad . That report is fromJuly 2023 . So , in nine months we ’ve go from “ drastic cutting to 400k units ” to … uh , “ drastic cut to 400k units . ”
certainly a new , lower - priced Vision Pro will cause all this to change , though , right-hand ? Well , Mark Gurman now says there will be no unexampled Vision Prountil late 2026 . That mightseemlike a retentive time but , remember , that ’s only because it is .
IDG
There are a few common law for this , however . The first AirPods ship in December of 2016 and the 2d contemporaries did n’t ship until March of 2019 . The first HomePod ship in February of 2018 and the HomePod mini was not released until November of 2020 . The first is n’t a smashing comparison because it ’s more of an accessory than a stand - alone product and the 2d is n’t a bang-up example because , well , the HomePod is n’t really a tentpole Apple product .
Ultimately , Apple ’s drop in iPhone share must be taken into the context of it doing exceedingly well in prior quarters , much as when people say the Macalope has “ let his pants down ” you have to remember how gamy he had them hiked in the first blank space . Honestly , he could do it four or five more times before you ’d even see his paunch button .
The Vision Pro , on the other hand , is setting an entirely newfangled watermark and , at the damage it sells for , it was never going to be very mellow . Still , the FOMO seems to have mostly drain out of this twist . If Apple does n’t have another in the waiting line for two more years , it might need to speed up release apps and experience for the Vision Pro .
If the company ever gets heroic , it can always make an iPhone mini again . They ’d get at least one sales agreement .
