When I woke up Tuesday morning to the news that Verizon Wireless would offer a version of the iPhone that works on its connection , the first thing I did — as I ’m sure you all did , too — was gather up all my family ’s iPhones and throw them into the nearby lake ! Because , of grade , Verizon provide an iPhone signify that all other iPhones are wretched . True , I ca n’t get service until at least February 10 , and I have to pay hundreds of dollar in cancellation fees and lose my initial purchase price for the phone . But that ’s a small price to yield to get rid of bad rubbish .
OK — that ’s a bit of a lie . My iPhone remains untouched , and I ’m middling sure yours does , too . But to read analyst ’ vox populi about AT&T ’s nett customer release due to Verizon , it would appear they have apocalyptic lemming visual sense for utterly good ironware . Estimated defectors range fromhundreds of thousandstomore than a milliontoseveral million . The low end of that estimate is possible ; the high-pitched estimate make no sense .
The customers that move to Verizon from AT&T have to shed work , worthful smartphones . Most people wo n’t put a gadget in their drawer and eat up $ 300 to $ 500 between the initial cost of an iPhone and a termination fee . Those speech sound will be sold to other people , and become the first smartphone for someone upgrade from a lower - end featurephone ( thus improving AT&T ’s revenue ) , a switcher phone for someone consume reward of a cheap iPhone to get onto AT&T ’s mesh , or a new lineage for a family plan that already has some mix of phone . Hey , Junior ! Hey , Sis ! Here ’s a previously owned iPhone — just for you !
Among all iPhone owner , it ’s most probable that the majority of those with iPhone 3 gram models are outside their two - year touch term ; they might be bid their time to give AT&T the slip . The iPhone 3 deoxyguanosine monophosphate can run iOS 4 ( sometimes very very slowly ) , but miss multitasking and other features that require a 3GS or 4 . Even if there ’s a mess Book of Exodus of iPhone 3 yard owners , it would interpret a few million drug user . Because those sound retain economic value , they ’ll be handed off and betray cheaply . Some identification number will get recycled or thrown away .
The iPhone 3GS is a slick framework . With a better processor and full iOS 4 support , include support for extraneous keyboards , these can be easy sell . A fresh iPhone 3GS with 8 GB is just $ 49 from Apple and AT&T , but this require a two - year committal . An out - of - contract bridge or contract - strike down iPhone 3GS will be sell by any sensible AT&T emigré .
Some late - period iPhone 3 1000 and all iPhone 3GS owners will also confront cancellation penalties . AT&T follow out a pro - rata reduction in the former termination fee of $ 175 in March 2008 for fresh purchasers ; this endure until June 2010 , just before the iPhone 4 shipped . The fee drops by $ 5 per calendar month . If you upgrade , the fee can be waived if you ’ve spent enough . But if you cancel table service altogether , you owe the rest . For an iPhone 3GS vendee who suffer his or her phone in June 2009 , that ’s still $ 70 to give in February on top of an initial $ 199 or $ 299 purchase price .
And no person with enough signified to complete an iPhone 4 purchase and activating in the second one-half of 2010 bought it with the impression that Verizon would never offer an iPhone . peradventure some citizenry do n’t read the paper , see web log , or talk to other masses for months at a clip , but I doubt those citizenry are buying up cutting - edge smartphones . Every single person I know who knows that I spell about applied science , even people with no stake in telephone , has need me last summer about whether and when Verizon might have an iPhone made for its internet .
Crunch all that together , and that leaves a rather small number of people to jump ship without experience a strong motivation to sell to another user who will , perhaps , inactivate an original iPhone or pass on an iPhone 3 or 3GS .
the great unwashed are n’t rational . It might be easy to draw a blank about the original leverage price of the phone , and hazard to not see the parentage point in the bill for canceling service — and then swallowing another $ 199 or $ 299 in a new purchase from Verizon . In this economy , though ? I have my uncertainty .
Verizon will sure as shooting poach AT&T client , but ca n’t poach AT&T phone . The phone ’ continued sex appeal entail AT&T wo n’t endure much loss in activate lines . The $ 15 - per - calendar month DataPlus service plan mate with a cheap or costless used iPhone and no service commitment might even mean AT&T picks up net customer because of all the iPhones flooding the market place .
We ’ll see . I see this as a greater - than - zero - inwardness game , as more indorser of both mesh move up to smartphones , and more people in a phratry acquire iPhones at a more affordable price . If I ’m incorrect , well , I can still fall in the crew , and go soak my iPhones ( and my nous ) in the lake .
[ Frequent Macworld contributor Glenn Fleishman is a regular contributor to the Economist’sBabbage blog , and the editor program ofWi - Fi Net News . ]
