The chances of Creative Technology winning an injunction to prevent Apple from trade the iPod domestically are slim , effectual experts say . But its causa against Apple alleging patent infringement could have broad consequences for both companies and the portable media thespian market as a whole .

Creative charge causa against Applelast month , claiming its “ Zen Patent ” cover the user interface used byApple ’s iPod . Apple responded byfiling a suit of its own , alleging that Creative infringed on four of its patents .

It will be a while before the legal issues get sorted out . The only certain matter at this point , attorneys say , is that the originative - Apple dispute will be a costly battle that could sweep up on for yr .

“ originative ’s chances of gravel an enjoining against Apple are about the same as being excise by lightning , ” say Irv Rappaport , managing director of patent of invention portfolio psychoanalyse firmIP Checkups . Rappaport , who is also the former associate general counselling for cerebral property and licensing at Apple , cited the Supreme Court ’s late opinion in favour of eBay in a letters patent dispute over its “ Buy It Now boast ” as well as the publicity over Research In Motion ’s patent dispute over its BlackBerry handheld gimmick as indicant that Creative would n’t get an injunction against Apple .

“ A late subject area has shown that success by plaintiffs in patent of invention misdemeanor cases involving software is less than 20 pct going all the way through tryout and appeals , ” Rappaport said . “ My opinion is that if Apple trust there is any possible validity to the patent and that Apple believes it may be found to be infringing , it will get back the causa and take a permit . ”

It ’s been a tough class for Creative . Last summer , it shipped 4,000 of its Zen Neon players to Japan with an unintended software bundle , the Wulik.b Worm for Windows .

More recently , the troupe posted a $ 114.3 million loss for its fiscal third quarter ; analyst are predicting that the company will annunciate a nine - fingerbreadth personnel casualty on the yr when it reports its earning June 30 . Though buoy some after filing the case against Apple , the caller ’s stock Mary Leontyne Price is close to a four - year Sir David Alexander Cecil Low .

Meanwhile , Creative ’s MP3 player mart share has fallen far behind rival Apple ’s . And that could aid explain why Creative filed the suit in the first plaza .

“ letters patent lawsuits are very costly — on average for big ace , about $ 5 million per side in sound fee , ” said Mark Lemley , director of Stanford University’sProgram in Law , Science and Technology . “ They are often lodge by companies with declining gross sales that are looking for additional revenue sources . ”

Legal experts gave differing estimates on how precisely much the monetary value would range up to , but all agreed that they would be in the millions of dollar mark .

“ It ’s horrifically expensive to lock in patent of invention dispute , and this is going to be a sweep up out combat , no question about it , ” says Peter Zula , a patent lawyer withBell , Boyd , and Lloyd , and former patent tester with the United States Patent and Trademark Office . “ particularly when sue in California , which tends to be a lot slower and very expensive . I would n’t be surprised at all if they each blow $ 8 to $ 10 million in sound fee . ”

slaying suicide

While a patent of invention suit will be very costly for both companies , Apple is better positioned to steep the expense . For a struggling company like Creative , a prolonged conflict could signal the decease knell .

“ This slip will cost originative gazillion in effectual fee and more significantly could embroil on for 5 to 10 years , ” Rappaport say . “ The probability of [ Creative ] live that long has to be quite slim . ”

The suit evoke broader issues the industry as a whole as well . Creative ’s quick goal is to interdict Apple from engaging in sales , selling or importing of iPods and iPod nanos in the United States . Creative claims that its Zen Patent treat the drug user interface “ used by most portable digital medium players . ” In the example it posted online , Creative endeavor to show that it owns the right to a user user interface that allow for hierarchical navigation of media Indian file , going from carte to artists , to albums , to a leaning of tracks .

Yet the iPod is far from the only musician that allows users to pilot from a top - level card down to a list of caterpillar tread by mode of artist , album , genre , and playlist . medium role player from Samsung , iRiver , Sony , Philips , and Archos , among others , all use interchangeable pilotage organization . Though Apple is the only mark Creative has named in a lawsuit , Creative chairman Sim Wong Hoo has already suggest that the company intends to vigorously defend its letters patent .

“ We will pursue all manufacturer that use the same navigation system,”said Sim told the BBC . “ This is something we will pursue sharply . ”

This cast some of Apple ’s competitors in an odd position . While most would in all probability care to see the iPod take a tumble , a case law - setting decision in Creative ’s favour could be bad news for their own mathematical product , expert say .

“ Other possible defendants always urge on for the suspect in the suit because if the suspect loses , their chances of prevailing in a suit against them goes down dramatically , ” Rappaport sound out .

Conversely , if Apple wins , Creative has a much harder time enforcing its letters patent . So , consider Apple ’s deep sack , it is therefore surprising that Creative went after the iPod first , letters patent attorney Zula said .

“ If you ’re a declamatory company , you put an example of a rival party that ’s bighearted enough to be noticed , but not full-grown enough to have an enormous war thorax , ” Zula added . “ It becomes a set - up for a show down , in this case Creative would eventually point Apple as a variety of rarified prize . ”

Creative and Apple are the two handsome players in the portable media player market . The companionship ’ respective Zen and iPod lines have been battling it out for nearly five yr now . In that engagement , Apple has irresistibly been the dominant instrumentalist , with a 78 percent market place share .

Mathew Honan is a San Francisco - based freelancer author . Check out hisMac and iPod weblog