While Apple post strong fiscal third - quarter earnings earlier this week , the company temper expectations for the fourth - quarter by omen earnings of 49 to 51 cents a portion — shortsighted of what what Wall Street had been anticipating . But that is n’t worry some analysts who felt that late expectations for Apple ’s public presentation had become hyperbolic .
“ I guess that analysts jumped out ahead with big numbers , ” say Needham & Company psychoanalyst Charles Wolf .
Warnings that Apple ’s fourth - quartern numbers would descend poor of Wall Street ’s rosy mind-set came a week before this week ’s third - after part results were declare , when Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Robert Semple issue a write up pegging Apple ’s fourth - quartern pay at 50 cent a percentage ; that compare to the 52 cent - per - share consensus idea among other analysts .
Semple ’s expectation equalise the guidance issued by Apple this week . Briefing analyst , Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer forecast revenue of about $ 4.5 to $ 4.6 billion and pay between 46 and 48 cents a share , including an estimated disbursement from stock - ground compensation . take away that expense , Apple ’s estimation fall within the 49 - cent to 51 - cent per share image .
Analysts polled by enquiry house Thomson Financial expected Apple to report taxation of $ 4.94 billion with the 52 - cent - per - share gain .
Needham ’s Wolf has a very simple explanation for the lofty expectations : inexperient analysts . With the iPod catapult Apple into the world ’s stagecoach over the last few years , more and more analyst have started postdate the company and its product cycle .
“ There ’s too many analysts following these companies that have n’t followed them very long , ” Wolf said . “ All you had to do was delineate out the sequent variety between June and September and you had to see those estimates were ridiculous . It ’s an education one-fourth , and that ’s all it is . You ca n’t expect a big jump between June and September . ”
But that ’s no reason for vexation , even for Credit Suisse First Boston ’s Semple . “ If you compare it to last year it ’s actually pretty similar , ” Semple toldMacworld . “ Last year was a quarter where they were crop down iPod sales , the iPod miniskirt was reaching its end of spirit and make way for the nano . They used the bulk of the September quarter to boil down those inventories . ”
as well , Semple said he expects Apple to use this September to once again thin out iPod inventories as the company prepares for a refresh of the pop music player . He ask the new iPods to come in the September to October timeframe .
“ There ’s a portion of speculation on the iPod front , ” Semple suppose . “ But it does sure does palpate like we ’re find out last class play out again in term of the sequential guidance . I kind of think it ’s déjà vu all over again . ”
Of course , a forecast is just that — an prospect by Apple of what analysts and shareowner should expect to see in the next quarter . Apple still has every opportunity to flow short of or outgo those arithmetic mean . Both psychoanalyst noted that actual remuneration would depend on when and if Apple put out a new iPod , and based on the company ’ past history it is more likely to come afterwards in the year
“ iPod sales could be very potent or continue at 8 million [ units ] , bet on whether Apple introduces unexampled iPods in September , ” say Wolf , noting that Apple never let out new products ahead of time . “ You could see it in September or October . We can be certain that there will be a date in that six hebdomad time period that will lead into iPods for Christmas . ”
For its part , Apple administrator seemed very comfortable with the forecast laid out during the earnings conference call . Apple also indicate that the acoustic projection were uniform with past performance .
“ Our guidance through the September one-quarter actually is uniform with our past seasonality , and our range represents growth of 22 to 25 pct over last class , ” Oppenheimer enjoin psychoanalyst during Wednesday ’s conference call . “ And again , the last year ’s September quarter , was the good Mac gross revenue fourth we had in pedagogy in 10 years . ”
