Back in January , Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone at Macworld Expo to thunderous clapping and intensify expectations . In the ensuing six calendar month , the hoopla surroundingApple ’s peregrine phonehasn’t abated — if anything , it ’s hitting new level as Friday ’s 6 p.m. release time draws closer .

Take this judgment from Mark Donovan , older psychoanalyst at roving industriousness research firmM : Metrics : “ It ’s really a plot - change equipment . This iPhone cacoethes will for good modify expectations and the agency we look at these type of machine . ”

And the funny thing is , Donovan might be downplay things .

Consider the growing gang outside of the Apple and AT&T depot that will lead off selling the iPhone Friday eve . That sort of panorama is not uncommon for consumer electronics devices , but not for mobile phones . Rival French telephone makers and service providers are deal notice as well — all in reaction to a twist whose roving earpiece , multimedia system playback , and vane - surfing capabilities are available in some form or another from other product .

The difference ? The iPhone flux all those features with an user interface from a company known for its simplicity .

That produce what Donovan calls “ an interesting dynamic ” for the residue of the mobile equipment industry . “ This is utterly get going to hale the script of the other boastful operator , ” he said . “ There is an opportunity here for them to bring more innovation to the table . ”

Those are heady expectations for a merchandise quite unlike anything Apple ’s ever shipped before . Even the iPod — Apple ’s most recent landscape - altering product — didn’t debut to this kind of scrutiny .

Then and now

While we ’ve had six month of build - up to Friday ’s iPhone launch , the iPod pip the vista in late 2001 under unquestionably unlike circumstances . The euphony player was unveil at a press - only event at Apple ’s Cupertino , Calif. , home office . manufacture watchers were intrigued , but questioning about the iPod ’s chances for success , especially at the prospect of pay $ 399 for a euphony player . Apple had the last jest , selling its100 millionth iPodearlier this yr .

The iPod ’s runaway succeeder is doubtlessly fanning expectation for the iPhone , though it ’s of import to think of that these are two very different products entering their respective marketplace at very unlike multiplication . When the iPod debuted , there were other MP3 players on the market ; however , most featured clunky interface and embarrassing integration with computers . The iPod introduced an easy - to - control scroll wheel and unparalleled ironware - software program integration .

In contrast , the iPhone enter a passably mature market . industriousness analysts peg the general market for cell phones at 1 billion sold in 2006 . At the iPhone ’s January debut , Steve Jobs said Apple hop to captivate 1 percent of that market—10 million headphone — by the death of 2008 .

That number may be on the conservative side , analysts say . “ I have a hard time believing Jobs would posit a number he would n’t blow through , ” state Donovan , lend that getting to that number will demand dispersion outside of the U.S. Apple plans to elaborate the iPhone to other food market in 2008 .

Michael Gartenberg , vice president and research managing director atJupiterResearch , agrees . “ Meeting the 10 million would be huge , ” he said . “ If they are fire on all cylinder , that may be a very low number . ”

accord to M : prosody , there are more than 7.2 million fresh phones in the United States ; almost 9 million users mind to euphony on their mobile gimmick . Given the iPhone ’s voice , euphony , and data capabilities , those people figure to be squarely in Apple ’s spate .

assemble expectations

So how does Apple capture those users and hit its 10 million iPhone gross sales goal ? It has to meet expectations , which is why you ’ve see the company roll outa serial of telecasting , seemingly daily , to give users a better idea of what the iPhone can and can not do .

“ Apple has done a sound job of hold open first moment in check , ” Gartenberg sound out . “ Nobody that buys this matter will have any undue expectations — [ Apple has ] been very readable about what the mapping are and how they work . ”

Avi Greengart , principal analyst for fluid devices atCurrent Analysis , said Apple is being very reasonable with setting first moment for what the iPhone will do .

“ Apple is letting the iPhone trade itself — that shows a in high spirits level of confidence , ” say Greengart . “ There are other mathematical product on the food market that are nerveless , but they are n’t fun — they make you feel old . The iPhone is cool and fun . ”

But at the ending of the Clarence Day , the “ cool ” element only carries you so far . What hoi polloi will gestate is a speech sound that can palm all the Call , e - mail , SMS messaging , and Web surfing that they do during the course of instruction of a typical twenty-four hour period .

“ Is this gimmick go to be the workhouse that people have a bun in the oven from a phone ? ” M : metric ’ Donovan require . “ The iPhone is one of the biggest technical challenges the company has ever faced . ”

persistent impingement

Beyond the hype of this opening weekend of sales , it will take clip to fancy out if the iPhone is a financial windfall for Apple . But it ’s clear-cut even before the first telephone Edwin Herbert Land in the hands of eager consumer that the iPhone will leave a mug on the mobile industry .

“ It ’s a market masses have been implore Apple to get into for age because they are not well-chosen with their devices , ” said JupiterResearch ’s Gartenberg .

Donovan said one variety present by the iPhone that ’s likely to gain consumers over the long haulage is the phone ’s user interface . While conversant to Mac users , general consumer might find it to be a pleasant surprise .

“ One of the hallmarks of Apple ’s approach is their decision to go out thing out of mathematical product , ” said Donovan , direct to the simplicity of other Apple offerings . That lets multitude feel comfortable using the products .

Greengart of Current Analysis take Apple ’s carrying out of the iPhone interface even further : “ Whether it ’s successful or not , the outlook for a user interface on a wandering phone have been change incessantly . ”

[ Jim Dalrymple is news program director ofMacworld.com . ]